Should Modi emerge victorious, he will become just the second Indian leader to secure a third term in office, following Jawaharlal Nehru, the nation’s inaugural prime minister.
India’s national election, spanning six weeks, concluded on Saturday as the final voters cast their ballots in what is widely regarded as a verdict on Hindu Nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tenure of a decade.
Throughout the exhaustive, multi-phase election, candidates traversed the nation, election officials journeyed to remote villages, and citizens queued for hours in oppressive heat. Now, anticipation mounts for the results, slated to be disclosed on Tuesday.
This election holds immense significance in India’s history. Should Modi secure victory, he will join Jawaharlal Nehru as only the second leader to serve three consecutive terms as prime minister.
Most opinion polls indicate Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party maintain a lead over the expansive opposition coalition, spearheaded by the Congress party. Vote counting is scheduled for Tuesday, with results expected by day’s end.
Modi’s campaign initially emphasized economic advancement, promising to uplift the impoverished and propel India towards developed status by 2047. However, in recent weeks, the rhetoric intensified as Modi employed polarizing language in fiery speeches targeting the nation’s Muslim minority, comprising 14% of India’s 1.4 billion populace.
Since assuming office in 2014, Modi has enjoyed widespread popularity. His proponents view him as a self-made, resolute leader who has bolstered India’s global standing, attributing the nation’s ascent to the world’s fifth-largest economy to his pro-business policies.
Conversely, his tenure has witnessed blatant assaults and hate speech against minorities, particularly Muslims. Critics argue that India’s democratic principles are eroding, with Modi increasingly blurring the line between religion and governance.
As the campaign unfolded, Modi’s party encountered formidable opposition from the alliance led by Rahul Gandhi of the Congress party. They have criticized Modi’s Hindu nationalist agenda and seek to capitalize on growing economic discontent. The BJP also sought to consolidate support among the Hindu majority, constituting 80% of the population, after Modi inaugurated a Hindu temple on the site of a demolished mosque in January. While viewed as the unofficial commencement of his campaign, analysts caution that enthusiasm for the temple may not translate into votes.
Following a slight decrease in voter turnout compared to 2019 figures in the initial rounds of the 2024 polls, Modi intensified anti-Muslim rhetoric, purportedly to invigorate his core Hindu voter base. However, analysts suggest this also reflects the absence of a singular campaign issue, which Modi previously leveraged to galvanize his campaigns.
In 2014, Modi’s image as an outsider promising to combat entrenched corruption resonated with voters disenchanted with dynastic politics. Similarly, in 2019, he secured a landslide victory amid a surge of nationalism following airstrikes into Pakistan in retaliation to a Kashmir bombing that claimed 40 Indian soldiers’ lives.
However, analysts assert that circumstances differ this time, potentially offering Modi’s political opponents an opening.
“The opposition somehow managed to divert his strategy by shifting the narrative to local concerns, such as unemployment and the economy. This election sees voters prioritizing various issues,” remarked Rasheed Kidwai, a political analyst.