Indicators suggest a highly active hurricane season ahead in the Atlantic Ocean.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently unveiled its annual hurricane season forecast, predicting a record-breaking 17 to 25 storms. Among these storms, eight to 13 are forecasted to intensify into hurricanes. However, it remains uncertain whether they will impact Atlantic Canada.
NOAA is highly confident in predicting an active hurricane season, with an 85 percent probability of it being above normal, a 10 percent likelihood of it being normal, and just a five percent chance of below-normal activity.
The primary determinant for the approaching hurricane season is the elevated sea surface temperatures. Presently, water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are notably higher than usual, with some regions experiencing near-record warmth. This pattern is anticipated to persist throughout the hurricane season.
These warm ocean temperatures serve as the energy source for the formation and intensification of tropical storms, providing the necessary fuel as they traverse the Atlantic towards North America.